Perspectives on Investing: In case you missed it, gold is heading south. . .

Monday, September 11, 2006

In case you missed it, gold is heading south. . .


Take a close look at this chart on the right. It is a twelve month price chart of the streetTracks Gold etf (symbol: GLD) from BigCharts. A share of GLD is equal 1/10th of an ounce of gold and thus a great proxy for the metal itself. Of course, the price of gold is affected by a number of variables and is viewed by many as an inflation hedge. So it is very interesting to note that gold peaked in late spring and has been trending lower ever since. It now looks like GLD is breaking below its 200 day moving average (approx. $58.5) and starting a new leg down. What does it mean? Time will tell but we suspect GLD's breakdown reflects moderating inflation expectations and good news on interest rates. Watch out though, falling gold prices also reflect concerns of a slowing economy and the risk of a recession.

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